MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2074

ACUS11 KWNS 241735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241735
OHZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-242230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST WED NOV 24 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL / NERN IND / W-CNTRL OH / FAR SWRN LOWER
MICH

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 241735Z - 242230Z

FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN IL SEWD TO
W-CNTRL OH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ICE ACCUMULATION RATES
0.02-0.10 INCH/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.

17Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SLOW TO MODIFY WEDGE OF LOWER 30S
TEMPS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION REGION AS A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
GEORGIAN BAY AIDS IN MAINTAINING A FETCH OF COOL DRY AIR /DEWPOINTS
MID-UPPER 20S/ INTO THE REGION. THIS IS OCCURRING BENEATH A STRONG
WAA REGIME ALOFT THAT IS FED BY A 55 KT H85 JET FROM THE SW OVER THE
LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. AS A RESULT...ONGOING SHIELD OF LIGHT TO
INTERMITTENTLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE IL/IND HAS
LED TO PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CNTRL IL EWD TO CNTRL IND THIS
MORNING WHERE OBSERVED RATES ARE RANGING FROM TRACE AMOUNTS
INITIALLY...AND THEN UP TO 0.10/HR OR GREATER ACROSS W-CNTRL IND
DURING THE PAST HOUR. AS THE WET BULB ZERO LINE SLOWLY PROGRESSES
NEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM SW
TO NE. IN THE MEANTIME...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVELS
SATURATING IN THE NEXT 1-4 HRS ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO FREEZING
RAIN.

..SMITH.. 11/24/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON 40558324 40118312 39718334 39438400 39548493 41468897
42168883 42408821 42368693 41558446 41008360 40558324

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