SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241824
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-242000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NE OK...SE KS...SW MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241824Z - 242000Z
A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS
INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL/NE OK...SE KS AND SW
MO. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY. A WW SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY ONCE
STORMS DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY.
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTIAL CLEARING FROM OKC
NEWD TO TULSA WHERE THE CUMULUS IS AGITATED AND A FEW CELLS ARE
TRYING TO INITIATE. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS ALREADY GONE ON THE 18Z
NORMAN SOUNDING AND SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SLIGHTLY CONVERGENCE FLOW
WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S F. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS NE OK INTO SE KS
AND SW MO BY MID-AFTERNOON. SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO
INITIATE ACROSS THE MCD AREA BY 20Z AS IS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL
SHORT-TERM MODELS. IN ADDITION...WSR-88D VWPS ALONG WITH THE 18Z
SOUNDINGS FROM NORMAN AND SPRINGFIELD SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 75 TO 80
KT POINTING TO A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
GREATEST THREATS IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. HOWEVER...A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES MORE FOCUSED AND THE
STORMS TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 11/24/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37689495 36829398 35799549 35249656 35449723 35959726
36659665 37689495
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment