SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291902
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-292000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...LA...WRN MS...SERN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291902Z - 292000Z
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DESTABILIZE THE
AIR MASS. A WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED BY 20Z.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF LA AND SOUTHERN MS AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S F. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...SLOW DESTABILIZATION
HAS OCCURRED WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. 18Z
LCH/SHV/LIX RAOBS ALL SHOW THAT PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT HAS MOSTLY ELIMINATED THE CAP. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHWARD...AND ALSO RESULT IN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZED/ SEVERE STORMS. RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST SOME RECENT
INTENSIFICATION TO STORMS OVER WESTERN LA/EAST TX. THIS TREND MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NECESSITATING A TORNADO WATCH BY 20Z.
..HART.. 11/29/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31459390 33529209 34309104 33928953 32179005 30969104
30119222 29789349 30429421 31459390
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