Friday, December 17, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171952
SWODY1
SPC AC 171950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2010

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ERN GULF COAST THUNDER
AREA. THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR INCREASING CONVECTION -- AND
POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS -- IN WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH APPEARS ON TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 12/17/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST FRI DEC 17 2010/

...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER W TX WILL PROGRESS EWD TO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN
PLACE FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO SE GA. GRADUAL
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION IN A WEAK WAA PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
DEEPENING CONVECTION WITH TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-MIDLEVEL ASCENT OVERSPREAD THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF COASTS FROM
W TO E. RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL
LIMIT ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL APPROACH
THE NRN CA AND ORE COASTS EARLY SATURDAY. STEEPENING LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK BUOYANCY WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG
THE COAST...BUT THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY 2 PERIOD.

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