SWODY1
SPC AC 191954
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2010
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN CA...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG
WITH A FEW RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE NRN CA COAST. ONSHORE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MINIMAL...AND THUS DESPITE STRONG FLOW ALOFT
EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO REMAIN WEAK. HAVING SAID THAT...A
BRIEFLY-STRONGER UPDRAFT OR TWO -- AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE EVENT -- WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS COOLER AIR ALOFT
MOVES ONSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX.
..GOSS.. 12/19/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST SUN DEC 19 2010/
...COASTAL ORE AND NRN CA TODAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD
JUST OFF THE ORE/NRN CA COASTS THIS MORNING...AND THIS WAVE WILL
MOVE INLAND TODAY. THE RELATIVELY COOL/DRY OFFSHORE FLOW THIS
MORNING ACROSS ORE WILL BE REPLACED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
STEEPER LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG
THE COAST. DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE NRN CA
COAST AND SACRAMENTO VALLEY AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREAD INLAND.
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...IN COMBINATION WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY...MAY SUPPORT A RISK OF AN ISOLATED/LOW-TOPPED
ROTATING STORM IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE A FEW CLOUD BREAKS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS NEAR THE NRN CA COAST
GIVEN THE COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND 40 KT FLOW WITHIN 1-2 KM OF
THE GROUND.
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