SWODY1
SPC AC 230525
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CST WED DEC 22 2010
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...4-CORNERS TO SRN PLAINS...
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN ROCKIES
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SRN CA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS INTO NWRN TX BY 24/12Z. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
ALLOWING A POCKET OF COLD TEMPERATURES...MINUS 22C AT H5...TO MOVE
ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF IT LIKELY DEEP ENOUGH
FOR LIGHTNING. EVEN SO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE WILL ONLY
BE ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG.
DOWNSTREAM...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS WEST TX
INTO SWRN MO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A LLJ
INTENSIFIES NEAR THE RED RIVER OF TX/OK AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST NAM
SUGGESTS PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 850MB WILL YIELD MUCAPE AROUND 100
J/KG...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD
EVOLVE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING BY SUNRISE...THOUGH
UPDRAFTS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY.
..DARROW/GARNER.. 12/23/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment