SWODY1
SPC AC 251922
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2010
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
..JEWELL.. 12/25/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PROMINENT MEAN RIDGE FCST THROUGH
PERIOD...FROM NWRN MEX NNEWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS PORTIONS
CANADIAN ARCTIC NW OF HUDSON BAY. STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- EVIDENT
IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE CA NEAR 130W -- IS FCST TO MOVE
ASHORE CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST DURING 06-09Z TIME FRAME...REACHING
SIERRAS AND IMPERIAL VALLEY REGION BY END OF PERIOD.
SEPARATE/WEAKER PERTURBATION WILL REACH PORTIONS ORE COAST BY ABOUT
12Z. MEANWHILE...ERN CONUS SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO AMPLIFY
AS HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD OF STG SHORTWAVE NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS
OZARKS REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...SRN-STREAM PERTURBATION NOW
ANALYZED OVER MS DELTA REGION WILL ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS ERN GULF
COAST AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY...LOSING MOST OF ITS DEFINITION
OFFSHORE GA AND OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS AROUND 12Z.
AT SFC...LOW ANALYZED JUST E BVE...AS OF 15Z...IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD
ACROSS EXTREME NERN GULF...DEEPENING PROGRESSIVELY MORE AS IT
CROSSES NRN-MOST FL PENINSULA BETWEEN 00-06Z AND OFFSHORE
CA/CAROLINAS AFTERWARD. TRAILING COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED INITIALLY
OVER N-CENTRAL AND SWRN GULF OF MEXICO -- WILL BEGIN CROSSING
PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW COAST OF FL PENINSULAR AROUND 06Z...THEN SWEEP
RAPIDLY ACROSS ALL BUT SERN COAST BY END OF PERIOD.
...COASTAL WRN/SRN FL...
GREAT MAJORITY OF THUNDER THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR OVER
OPEN WATERS OF SERN GULF AS WELL AS ATLANTIC WELL OFFSHORE....WHERE
MARINE THERMAL/MOISTURE FLUXES HAVE GREATEST PROBABILITY TO MODIFY
BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE FAVORABLY. OVER INTERIOR PENINSULA...THETAE
SHOULD NOT RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CAPE
LAYER FOR MORE THAN VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED LTG AT MOST. ERN FRINGES OF
GULF CONVECTIVE REGIME MAY YIELD THUNDER OVER SRN PORTIONS FL W
COAST SWD THROUGH KEYS...EVENTUALLY LINKING UP WITH SRN PORTION OF
ATLANTIC CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INVOF FL STRAITS/KEYS.
....COASTAL PAC NW...
HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT ARE FCST LATE IN PERIOD AHEAD OF
NRN-STREAM TROUGH. LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCAPE 100-300 J/KG...REACHING INTO ICING LAYERS
FAVORABLE FOR LTG PRODUCTION.
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