SWODY1
SPC AC 300036
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST WED DEC 29 2010
VALID 300100Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A SIGNIFICANT DIGGING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTRIBUTES TO A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
TONIGHT...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO BUILD DOWNSTREAM
...FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH
IS NOW PRESENT...AND SLOWLY MIGRATING EASTWARD.
WHILE THE LEAD TROUGH LIKELY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE EMBEDDED IMPULSE WILL SHIFT FROM UPPER TEXAS
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP MAINTAIN ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
AT LEAST THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME. THIS INCLUDES THE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST INLAND OF UPPER TEXAS AND ADJACENT
LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENT BANDS TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST... WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IMPACTING COASTAL AND INLAND AREAS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN BASED WITHIN AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME ABOVE
A RAIN-COOLED/GENERALLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH WEAK CAPE
MINIMIZING SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIZABLE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED BENEATH A SOUTHERLY
850 MB JET...AND IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL NOT SHIFT INTO COASTAL AREAS. SO THE
POSSIBILITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
SUBSTANTIVE ROTATION SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL CAN NOT YET BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...AT LEAST NEAR COASTAL AREAS.
..KERR.. 12/30/2010
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