SWODY2
SPC AC 150533
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2010
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE MID LATITUDE
EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY... BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MID-LEVEL
COOLING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
ONE OR TWO BRIEF...WEAK THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MOGOLLON RIM...IN THE
VICINITY OF FLAGSTAFF/WINSLOW ARIZONA ...POTENTIAL FOR ANY
DESTABILIZATION MORE WIDESPREAD OR SUBSTANTIVE REMAINS IN DOUBT.
EAST OF THE ROCKIES...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE UPPER IMPULSE WILL
BE PRECEDED BY COLD SURFACE RIDGING NOSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL WAVE WHICH IS
PROGGED BY MODELS TO MIGRATE EAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
FLOW FIELDS ARE FORECAST WEAKEN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
STATES...A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE OFF A
MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME CONSIDERABLE LINGER MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ACROSS THIS
REGION...AT LEAST OVER INLAND AREAS.
..KERR.. 12/15/2010
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