Saturday, December 18, 2010

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180601
SWODY2
SPC AC 180600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST SAT DEC 18 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...LOW-AMPLITUDE PATTERN FCST ACROSS MOST OF
CONUS...BRACKETED BY TROUGHING JUST OFFSHORE W COAST AND OVER LOWER
GREAT LAKES/NRN APPALACHIAN REGION. CYCLONE ALOFT NOW OVER NRN QUE
IS FCST TO RETROGRADE WNWWD ACROSS MUCH OF NRN CANADA...WHILE
CYCLONE OFFSHORE PAC NW MEANDERS/REDEVELOPS SLOWLY EWD. AT
SFC...ATLANTIC CYCLOGENESIS DAY-1 AND RELATED FROPA OFF E COAST WILL
LEAVE BEHIND AIR MASS TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR TSTMS E OF ROCKIES.

...NRN CA TO COASTAL PAC NW...
COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT...RELATED STEEP LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND WEAK SBCINH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN MARINE AIR MOVING ONSHORE FROM NWRN ORE TO
NWRN CA...VIRTUALLY ANYTIME DURING PERIOD. EXPECT MLCAPE UP TO 300
J/KG...DEPTH OF BUOYANT LAYER GENERALLY INCREASING WITH NWWD EXTENT
FROM NRN CA COAST TO OFFSHORE NRN ORE. STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL/GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS. FARTHER SE...LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR MAY
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SVR ACROSS PORTIONS SAC VALLEY...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SFC WINDS TO EXPERIENCE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED BACKING BENEATH
NRN RIM OF 60-90 KT 500-MB SPEED MAX. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS/PRECIP FOR MUCH OF PERIOD MAY LIMIT SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY. SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL TO ASSIGN
AOA 5% PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 12/18/2010

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