SWODY3
SPC AC 180708
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CST SAT DEC 18 2010
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
BELT OF STG MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM W COAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS TO MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS REGIONS THROUGH
DAY-2...IN BETWEEN REGIMES OF TROUGHING OFFSHORE PAC COAST AND OVER
NRN MID-ATLANTIC/QUE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FCST TO MOVE ONSHORE NRN
CA AS LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION DAY-2...WILL EJECT FROM SRN RIM OF
NERN PAC CYCLONE AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BELT OVER
NRN GREAT BASIN BY BEGINNING OF DAY-3. THIS PERTURBATION THEN IS
PROJECTED TO REACH SD BY 20/18-21/00Z TIME FRAME...WITH MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/AMPLITUDE BY THEN AMONG VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC/SREF PROGS.
IN RESPONSE...SFC CYCLOGENESIS FCST BY EARLY IN PERIOD OVER CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. MAIN SFC LOW SHOULD SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS MID-UPPER MS
VALLEY REGION BY 21/12Z...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS OK AND NW TX.
ALTHOUGH STG LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE TOO SCANT TO
SUPPORT TSTMS.
MEANWHILE...ENTIRE W COAST SHOULD REMAIN UNDER MOIST...SWLY-WSWLY
FLOW IN MIDLEVELS...FOLLOWING SW-NE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS WA COAST EARLY IN PERIOD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR COAST IN WEAKLY CAPPED AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE MARINE AIR...PRIMARILY N OF UPPER JET CORE FROM SFO BAY
AREA NWD. SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO WEAK/CONDITIONAL FOR
PROBABILITIES AOA 5%.
..EDWARDS.. 12/18/2010
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