SWOD48
SPC AC 180938
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CST SAT DEC 18 2010
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF CONUS THROUGH MOST OF
PERIOD...IN BETWEEN AREAS OF MEAN TROUGHING OVER NERN PAC AND NWRN
ATLANTIC. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL TRAVERSE STG FLOW
BELT...MOST AMPLIFIED OF WHICH IS FCST TO MOVE ASHORE CA AROUND MID
DAY-5/22ND-23RD. ALTHOUGH DIFFERING IN STRENGTH...DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF/UKMET/SPECTRAL ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY DAY-7/23RD-24TH.
CONSIDERABLY MORE SPREAD IS EVIDENT AMONG MREF MEMBERS...ROUGHLY
HALF OF WHICH AT LEAST LOOSELY MATCH OPERATIONAL MODELS. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
DAY-7...SHIFTING EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY DAY-8/24TH-25TH...ALONG
WITH STG/PRECURSORY LOW-LEVEL WAA AND POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS BOTH DAYS.
THEIR SEVERITY...HOWEVER...IS IN MAJOR DOUBT DUE TO STRENGTH OF
ANTECEDENT LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER GULF AND LIKELY INCOMPLETE NATURE
OF MARINE MODIFICATION...RESULTING IN LACK OF ROBUST MOISTURE.
..EDWARDS.. 12/18/2010
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