SWOD48
SPC AC 230938
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
BY START OF PERIOD...STG SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER ERN
CONUS...ANCHORED BY PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER LOWER GREAT
LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS. AS TROUGH MOVES EWD OFF ATLC COAST
THROUGH DAY-5/27TH-28TH...RELATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR GULF OF
MEXICO AND PENETRATE MUCH OF NRN/WRN CARIBBEAN...LEAVING BEHIND AIR
MASS TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR SVR THREAT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. BY
DAY-8/30TH-31ST...OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL...ECMWF AND ABOUT HALF OF
MREF MEMBERS INDICATE RATHER DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
WRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WHICH WOULD INDUCE STG HIGH-PLAINS
CYCLOGENESIS AND BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA IN CENTRAL CONUS.
HOWEVER...ANY AOA 30% LEVEL OF SVR THREAT APPEARS IMPROBABLE UNTIL
AFTER END OF PERIOD.
..EDWARDS.. 12/23/2010
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