SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012021
NYZ000-020045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CST WED DEC 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NY IN LEE OF LAKE ERIE
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 012021Z - 020045Z
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN NY IN THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE...PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE
SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF ERIE COUNTY...WYOMING COUNTY...AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN GENESEE AND FAR
NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.
INCREASINGLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY...SFC-850 TEMP DELTA GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR 20 DEG
C WITH AN INVERSION NEAR 2.5 KM...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN NY DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ERIE. PER THE BUFFALO WSR-88D VWP AND
RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MODERATELY STRONG BUT NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW /AROUND 250-260 DEG/ WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM SHOULD YIELD A
RELATIVELY CONSOLIDATED SINGULAR BAND/LONG FETCH OF HEAVY SNOW INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF ERIE COUNTY...WYOMING
COUNTY...AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN GENESEE
AND FAR NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO IS
WELL SUPPORTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 12Z
WRF-NMM/12Z WRF-ARW AND THE HRRR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND LONG FETCH/SINGLE BAND TYPE ORGANIZATION...LOCALIZED SNOW RATES
WILL LIKELY EXCEED 2 IN/HR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING.
..GUYER.. 12/01/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...
LAT...LON 42777913 42977837 42897799 42757796 42567819 42487852
42367954 42457956 42777913
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