SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222037
AZZ000-CAZ000-222200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CST WED DEC 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 222037Z - 222200Z
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN SRN CA
...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.
PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED EWD INTO SRN CA AT 20Z AND WAS LOCATED
NEAR A PMD-TRM-IPL LINE. DUE TO THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY...THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS LOCATED IN IMPERIAL COUNTY
EAST OF IPL. THE FRONT/LINE IS MOVING EWD AT 30 KT. THIS MOTION AND
SHORT ORGANIZED LINE MAY SUPPORT BRIEFLY STRONG WINDS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF IMPERIAL COUNTY DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN
SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTIES. OTHER CONVECTION IS ALSO DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE AND WILL MOVE INLAND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
DRIER AIR IS SPREADING INTO THE MID/HIGH LEVELS ACROSS COASTAL SRN
CA...AND WITH 500 MB COOLING TO -22C TO -24C...MID/HIGH LEVEL LAPSE
HAVE LIKELY STEEPENED SINCE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...WITH A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...MUCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THIS
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY IS LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN STRONG
UPDRAFTS...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50 TO 60 KT.
HOWEVER...IF ONE OR TWO STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAN BE MAINTAINED...BRIEF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING A VERY BRIEF
TORNADO...WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
..IMY.. 12/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PSR...SGX...LOX...
LAT...LON 32791465 32611673 32951724 33561778 33761807 34031771
33841712 33401691 33481636 33521602 33261562 33691501
33301469 32791465
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