SWODY1
SPC AC 050542
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2011
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY BROAD BUT LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVEL FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES BY 00Z THU
WITH CONTINUED UPPER COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS FL BY
THU MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVER NRN LA AT 12Z WED...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ALONG THE
TX COAST. E OF THE LOW...A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND ESEWD ACROSS LA.
AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PROGRESS E...AT LEAST LOWER 60 F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE SRN MS/AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY. AREAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT...AS WELL AS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...A SECONDARY AREA OF DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH STORMS AFFECTING THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA AFTER
06Z.
...CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...
ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN MS AS
WELL AS SRN AL WED MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 30-40 KT SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION PROFILES. STORMS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE
ELEVATED...BUT IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF
ENHANCING UPDRAFTS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE WEAKLY UNSTABLE PROFILE. WITH
MODESTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...SOME STORMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE HAIL...ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY NON-SEVERE. THESE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO GA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER.
THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR THE INITIAL ACTIVITY TO BACK-BUILD WWD
ACROSS SRN AL/MS INTO SERN LA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE A GREATER PROBABILITY OF BEING SURFACE BASED...AND THUS A
GREATER WIND THREAT. MARGINALLY SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY THEN CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN FL BY EVENING.
...CNTRL AND NRN FL OVERNIGHT...
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 70S. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S F...INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO
WEAK FOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WHEN SWLY
FLOW BRINGS LOWER TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS ONSHORE. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN GULF ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...AND CONTINUE EWD OVER THE PENINSULA. STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH SMALL LINE
SEGMENTS AND/OR SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE ASHORE.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROFILES
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL.
..JEWELL/HURLBUT.. 01/05/2011
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