SWODY1
SPC AC 130418
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 PM CST WED JAN 12 2011
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS
IN THE WAKE OF A VIGOROUS DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE. AT THE SFC...AN
EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SERN
STATES...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS...REINFORCING COLD/DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN HALF
OF THE NATION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW
COAST TODAY...BUT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
LIMITED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
...PAC NW...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW
COAST THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE BY 21Z...WITH
ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST MID-LEVEL COOLING OCCURRING AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING...BUT LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY ONLY SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES IMMEDIATELY OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OF
WA/OR AND NRN CA CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW TEN PERCENT.
..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 01/13/2011
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