SWODY1
SPC AC 050040
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2011
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A GENERALLY COOL AND DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS UNDER A ZONAL TO WNWLY FLOW REGIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST WHERE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
RETURN HAS OCCURRED. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ESEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY WED MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A 25-35KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN
AN ELEVATED FEED OF MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM SERN TX INTO SRN MS.
...SERN TX INTO LA/SRN MS...
ADVECTION OF UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO DEEP S TEXAS
HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY LEVELS THIS EVENING. THE 00Z
CRP AND BRO SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY WITH
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE BENEATH RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE
PROFILES. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST TO THE W AND N
OF HOUSTON AND N OF A WARM FRONT. A FEW STRONGER CORES WILL BE
CAPABLE OF NON-SEVERE HAIL.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ESEWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...THE MAIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SHIFT EWD INTO LA AND THEN INTO SRN MS BY WED MORNING. WHILE
OVERALL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE...STORMS WILL BE
MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY SOURCE. THUS...IT APPEARS
CURRENTLY OBSERVED STORM INTENSITIES WILL BE NEAR THE MAXIMUM
THROUGH THE PERIOD...PEAKING BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z OVER SERN TX/WRN
LA...WITH GENERALLY WEAKER CONVECTION MS OVERNIGHT.
..JEWELL.. 01/05/2011
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