SWODY1
SPC AC 160550
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SAT JAN 15 2011
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MEXICO WILL OPEN AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
TX TODAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN A LOW-LEVEL JET ORIENTED NORTH TO
SOUTH ALONG THE TX COAST WITH THE JET MOVING NEWD INTO SE TX THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS
WARM LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE FAVORED CORRIDOR ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON ON THE TX COASTAL PLAINS
SHOW WEAK LAPSE RATES AND VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY SUGGESTING A
SEVERE THREAT WILL NOT DEVELOP TODAY OR TONIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS
ALSO SUGGEST THE CONVECTION THREAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A LINGERING STORM LOCATED ON THE
MOIST AXIS ALONG THE SWRN LA COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR
TONIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 01/16/2011
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