SWODY1
SPC AC 051619
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST WED JAN 05 2011
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL...
ENE-WSW ORIENTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN
TX AS OF 12Z WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE SERN U.S. THIS
PERIOD...CONTRIBUTING TO OVERALL AMPLIFICATION OF ERN CONUS LONG
WAVE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN AR AS OF MID
MORNING WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF
AL/GA AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA IN ADVANCE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO.
BASED ON 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT RUC OBJECTIVE
DATA...QLCS FEATURING A LONGER-LIVED BOWING STRUCTURE OVER THE FL
PNHDL IS LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
NWD ADVANCEMENT OF WARM FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 50S INTO LOWER 60S AHEAD OF ONGOING
QLCS. AS SUCH...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ROOTED IN THE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHILE BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL /I.E.
MLCAPE VALUES LESS THAN 250-500 J PER KG/...PRESENCE OF 50-60 KT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INDICATE
SOME RISK FOR EMBEDDED BOWING/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON BOWING COMPLEX OVER THE FL
PNHDL...SEE MCD 7.
..MEAD/STOPPKOTTE.. 01/05/2011
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