SWODY1
SPC AC 200538
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE SRN PLAINS WILL PHASE
WITH THE NRN STREAM EARLY THURSDAY RESULTING IN A
FULL-LATITUDE...POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE COUNTRY. SRN FRINGE OF THE TROUGH WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS
NNEWD TOWARD THE NERN GULF BASIN AND THE FL PENINSULA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO AND ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WHERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
REMAIN HIGHEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AT LEAST A LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS/CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CNTRL/NRN FL AFTER 21/06Z AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPROACHES THE
REGION. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND THERMAL
BUOYANCY/LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW/WEAK TO PRECLUDE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
..RACY.. 01/20/2011
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