SWODY1
SPC AC 261235
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 AM CST WED JAN 26 2011
VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...APPALACHIANS TO MID ATLANTIC COAST...
INTENSE...MIDLEVEL LOW/PV ANOMALY OVER THE TN VALLEY INTO GULF
STATES THIS MORNING WILL ACCELERATE NEWD TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SEWD PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM
SYSTEM OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
/AOA 150-200 M PER 12-HR/ WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...ONE CYCLONE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE
WRN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE
TN/NC BORDER AS OF 11Z WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP NEWD TO THE
TIDEWATER REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOW SHOULD THEN
UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION TONIGHT WHILE TRACKING NNELY TO
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 27/12Z.
SPORADIC LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITHIN A ZONE INTENSE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ATTENDANT TO ABOVE-MENTIONED PV ANOMALY. BASED ON
THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING...THESE TSTMS ARE LIKELY ROOTED JUST ABOVE
850-MB WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND A CONDITIONAL UNSTABLE LAPSE
RATE YIELD MUCAPE OF 200-300 J/KG. EXPECT A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT TO BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF WRN-MOST SURFACE LOW AND UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF ONGOING ELEVATED TSTM
ACTIVITY NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA/TIDEWATER REGION BY AFTERNOON.
...FL...
THE MOST WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY AS OF 12Z IS CONFINED TO VICINITY
OF TUESDAY NIGHT/S MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND
KEYS...WITH MORE ISOLATED LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED WITH DEEPER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FORMING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SE OF TPA. 12Z
TBW/MFL/KEY SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKLY BUOYANT
ENVIRONMENT /I.E. MUCAPE OF 500-900 J PER KG/ ABOVE A STABLE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. AS SUCH...EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT TODAY WITH MORE NUMEROUS STORMS
PERSISTING INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY S OF THE KEYS. WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT AND WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH
TIME SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
..MEAD.. 01/26/2011
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