SWODY1
SPC AC 060055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST WED JAN 05 2011
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL THROUGH NRN FL...
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF MELBOURNE WWD
INTO THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. A 40-50 KT WLY LLJ WILL SHIFT EWD
THROUGH FL OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOCATED OVER AL AND GA. THE LLJ WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS
FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR STORMS TO PERSIST MAINLY NORTH OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE 00Z RAOB FROM TALLAHASSEE SHOWS A PRONOUNCED
SURFACE STABLE LAYER OVER NRN FL...SUGGESTING STORMS DEVELOPING
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. MUCAPE WILL REMAIN TOO
LIMITED FOR A SUBSTANTIAL HAIL THREAT. OTHER STORMS COULD REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL FL WHERE ADVECTION OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. WHILE STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION AND BOWING SEGMENTS...THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE THREAT. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
SHOULD STORMS REDEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL FL.
..DIAL.. 01/06/2011
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