SWODY1
SPC AC 051251
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST WED JAN 05 2011
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT SLOWLY EWD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
CURRENTLY INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM IL SWWD INTO THE
SRN TX PANHANDLE...DIGS SEWD. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A WEAK HIGH
LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WERE SHIFTING
RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES... PROVIDING THE
MAIN SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...WHILE A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM SERN TX ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF...A
WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO SERN STATES. HOWEVER...ONLY A WEAK
WIND SHIFT WILL BE NOTED AT THE SURFACE SINCE THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE
NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE GULF.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
AT 12Z...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM SRN AL SWWD INTO
SERN LA. THIS CONVECTION WAS SHIFTING/DEVELOPING EWD AT 45-50 KT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH EWD MOVING UPPER WAVE AND CONSEQUENT WARM
ADVECTION/MASS CONVERGENCE. THIS CONVECTION HAS ALREADY OUTRUN
STRONGER INSTABILITY LOCATED IN SERN TX/SWRN LA...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S...MUCAPES ONLY UP TO 100
J/KG ARE EXPECTED. WHILE THE SHEAR IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD RAPIDLY EWD
THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE/SRN AL THIS MORNING AND OFF THE EAST COAST
OF NRN FL/SERN GA BETWEEN 21-00Z. SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER
AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL.
STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN LA DURING THE DAY
NEAR WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY. WHILE SHEAR/INSTABILITY WOULD
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION LATER TODAY...EXPECTED E-W
LINEAR ORIENTATION OF STORMS ALONG FRONT AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE
SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE/WIND DAMAGE IS LOW.
...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
WHILE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE LATER TODAY AS UPPER WAVE DEEPENS TO THE
WEST...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SHIFT NWD INTO THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...STORMS THAT MOVE INLAND
FROM THE ERN GULF TONIGHT WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WLY
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
NEAR 50 KT...ANY FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE TONIGHT.
..IMY/GARNER.. 01/05/2011
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