SWODY1
SPC AC 161553
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 AM CST SUN JAN 16 2011
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL/SERN TX INTO SWRN LA COAST...
DEEP MOIST LAYER CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS ERN TX INTO WRN/NRN LA
AND AR...IN ADVANCE OF COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TX. 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT BRO AND CRP INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
MOISTURE PLUME...LIMITING CAPE TO LESS THAN 250 J/KG WITHIN A
RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER.
NLDN DATA INDICATE THAT CG LIGHTNING THUS FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED TO
AREAS SOUTH OF BRO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SRN STREAM SHORT TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS EXTREME SRN TX/NERN MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
EWD THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE WRN GULF.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SEWD INTO TX IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHORT
WAVE. COLD AIR ALOFT /500 MB TEMPERATURE NEAR -20C/ ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM MAY STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL/SERN TX FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE GULF BY THIS EVENING.
..WEISS/GARNER.. 01/16/2011
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