SWODY1
SPC AC 301940
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011
VALID 302000Z - 311200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN TX/LA...
REMOVED LOW END SEVERE PROBABILITIES FROM PORTIONS OF LA AND NEAR
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY IN TX WHERE RAIN COOLED AIR EXISTS.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE WITHIN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER ERN/NERN TX INTO SRN AR WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE
70S F AND A GENERALLY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053.
..JEWELL.. 01/30/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011/
...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF WESTERLIES
WILL TRANSLATE FROM TX EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST IN ADVANCE OF MORE
INTENSE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE SWRN DESERTS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER N-CNTRL TX THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP
ENEWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD INTO CNTRL TX AND THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU BEFORE LIFTING NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
ELEVATED TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
OF MID MORNING FROM N OF UTS NEWD INTO NRN LA...ALONG NRN/WRN EDGE
OF SYSTEM WARM CONVEYOR BELT. LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY LARGELY BEING FORCED BY
DCVA IN ADVANCE OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY A WELL-DEFINED EML WHERE MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE APPROACHING 8.0-8.5 C/KM -- REF. 12Z FWD SOUNDING.
IT APPEARS THAT WRN/NRN EDGE OF MORE CONTINUOUS CLOUD/PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL REMAIN THE PREFERRED CORRIDOR OF TSTM
SUSTENANCE/REGENERATION THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WHERE THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK
OWING TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...THE
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY COOL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
MAINLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL INTO THIS EVENING.
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