DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171235
SWODY1
SPC AC 171233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 AM CST MON JAN 17 2011

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN FL PENINSULA INCLUDING THE
KEYS...

...SRN FL...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS GOM WITH A COUPLE S/WVS
EVIDENT ON W/V IMAGERY. WITH ONE JUST S OF LA...THE MORE IMPORTANT
S/W WITH REGARDS TO ANY SEVERE THREAT TODAY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
ERN GULF AND WILL BE CROSSING FL PENINSULA BY THIS EVENING WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET.

AIR MASS QUALITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ARE THE PRIMARY LIMITING
PARAMETERS REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A RATHER
WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER ERN GULF TO THE W OF TPA IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE NRN PORTION OF PENINSULA BY THIS EVENING AND
BEGIN A DEEPENING PROCESS OFF THE SERN COAST BY 12Z TUE. WARM FRONT
NOW LIFTING NWD THRU THE KEYS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO
MOISTEN AND SLOWLY DESTABILIZE INTO THE S HALF OF FL PENINSULA
DURING THE DAY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S. GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING CONVECTION OVER ERN GULF THERE
IS CONCERN THAT LACK OF STRONG HEATING WILL LIMIT THE DESTABILIZING
PROCESS.

HOWEVER AS EVIDENT ON THE SHEAR PROFILES OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FOR
TPA AND MIA ALONG WITH THE PERIODIC ROTATION NOTED IN THE CONVECTION
ALONG THE WARM FRONT SHIFTING NWD THRU THE KEYS...A THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN FL WILL BE CONTINUED AT
LEAST THRU THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE S/WV TROUGH PASSES TO THE E. THE
STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WOULD SEEM MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR VICINITY
ERN COAST OF SRN FL WHERE SURFACE HEATING POTENTIAL WOULD BE
GREATER. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RAISE MLCAPES TOO
MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT 500 J/KG. THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT WITH THE
EXPECTED SHEAR PROFILES...PARTICULARLY VICINITY THE WARM FRONT TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL.

..HALES/BOTHWELL.. 01/17/2011

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