SWODY2
SPC AC 040537
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST MON JAN 03 2011
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GULF COAST...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE INLAND SURGE OF MODIFIED MARITIME GULF AIRMASS DURING THE
UPCOMING DAY2 PERIOD. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALLOW LOWER 60S SFC DEW
POINTS TO SPREAD INTO THE TX COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS EXTREME SRN
LA...THOUGH DEEPENING WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT A MORE NWD EXPANSION AS
SFC BOUNDARY ESTABLISHES ITSELF NEAR THE IMMEDIATE TX/LA COAST.
DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
AID CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WIND SHIFT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR UPRIGHT
CONVECTION DUE PRIMARILY TO MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WILL
ADVECT ACROSS SOUTH TX INTO THIS FRONTAL ZONE. ALTHOUGH AN
EXPANSIVE W-E ZONE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE NOTED NEAR
THE COAST...BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
COOL/STABLE TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THIS PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBS.
..DARROW.. 01/04/2011
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