SWODY2
SPC AC 150602
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2011
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN U.S.
WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE PACIFIC NW SWD INTO CA. THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE NEAR S TX EARLY SUNDAY WILL DEAMPLIFY
AND WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS INTO THE WRN GULF IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER IN
A SERIES OF IMPULSES THAT WILL DROP SEWD INTO TX DURING THE DAY. A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
IMPULSE THROUGH SERN TX.
...SRN THROUGH ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTENANCE OF SLY LLJ OVER ERN TX AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THREAT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. ELY TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEND
TO MAINTAIN A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMIT NWD PROGRESSION OF
WARM FRONT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS EXCEPT ALONG SRN TX COASTAL AREAS.
FOR THIS REASON MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.
WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL FURTHER MITIGATE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 01/15/2011
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