SWODY2
SPC AC 170613
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CST MON JAN 17 2011
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF U.S. TUESDAY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE FL PENINSULA MONDAY WILL EJECT
NEWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD INDUCING A SURFACE CYCLONE THAT WILL
LIFT NWD ALONG MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. CONVECTION
INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE OUTER BANKS OF NC
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE
BY 12Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. UPPER JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
INTO THE BASE OF TROUGH OVER THE SERN STATES. SOME CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREA WHERE A SWLY LLJ COUPLED WITHIN
UPPER JET EXIT REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUD TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
TOO WARM IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER FOR SUBSTANTIAL ELECTRIFICATION.
..DIAL.. 01/17/2011
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