SWODY2
SPC AC 180537
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST MON JAN 17 2011
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES WILL UNDERGO TEMPORARY
DEAMPLIFICATION WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 44N
148W CRESTS THE WRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND AMPLIFIES SWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES. REINFORCING SURGE OF CAP AIR WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NRN GULF
EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT MODIFYING GULF AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING TO THE
WRN AND CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ONSHORE MOIST ADVECTION WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR
INLAND DESTABILIZATION DUE TO LIMITED DURATION OF RETURN FLOW AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850-700 MB. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM
PROSPECTS SHOULD REMAIN LOW THIS PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR FROM OK INTO
SRN KS WHERE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER ASCENT WILL
EXIST IN VICINITY OF SWD SURGING FRONTAL ZONE. INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
..DIAL.. 01/18/2011
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