DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 200555
SWODY2
SPC AC 200554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE U.S. FRIDAY WITH PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAMS. NRN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
SEABOARD. ATTENDANT CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NWD OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO NRN FL
AND THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND
INTO SRN FL DURING THE DAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE SRN
ROCKIES WILL SHEAR EWD DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NRN GULF
AND NRN FL WITHIN BASE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH.

...CNTRL THROUGH SRN FL...

MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
BENEATH WEAK LAPSE RATES. DIABATIC WARMING WILL DESTABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SRN FL RESULTING IN MARGINAL SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO WLY AND WEAKEN
IN WARM SECTOR AS NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW EJECT NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...STRONG
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PERSIST ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAMPLIFYING IMPULSE...MAINTAINING 40-50 KT WLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS SRN FL. STRONGER AND DEEPER FORCING WILL
SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE PENINSULA WITH TIME...BUT WEAK CAP AND
POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF COLD FRONT.
CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS.
OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED DUE TO THE EXPECTED MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 01/20/2011

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