SWODY2
SPC AC 230553
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2011
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MIDDLE TX COAST TO SW LA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES WILL DIG
SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. IN RESPONSE...A LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE TX COAST WITH A MOIST AXIS SETTING UP
ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO SKIRT THE MIDDLE TX COAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S F REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON OFF THE COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI
WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE AROUND VICTORIA...HOUSTON AND
GALVESTON BY MONDAY EVENING AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DUE TO
THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SHOULD
MOVE EWD INTO SWRN LA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST MONDAY EVENING SHOW
MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG PEAKING IN THE 06Z TO 09Z
TIMEFRAME. THIS ALONG WITH 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH
FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR STORMS VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. FOR THESE REASONS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE
QUITE LOW AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE A SEE TEXT AREA ATTM. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CONUS.
..BROYLES.. 01/23/2011
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