DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241725
SWODY2
SPC AC 241724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MOST OF FL...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT VORT MAX NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE SEWD INTO BASE OF MEAN SYNOPTIC TROUGH...REACHING THE NWRN
GULF EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF AND SERN
STATES OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE GULF WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA.

...FL...

WEAK SURFACE LOW ALREADY EVIDENT OVER THE WRN GULF SHOULD DEEPEN IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN GULF IS IN
THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING...AND FURTHER MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR
FARTHER EAST AS TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE SLY. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
IS FORECAST OFF THE GA COAST LATE TUESDAY AS ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTAKES THE GULF STREAM.
STRENGTHENING S-SWLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MID-UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS
THROUGH SRN FL WITH LOW 60S MORE LIKELY FARTHER NORTH. LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST DIABATIC WARMING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO 500-1000
J/KG OVER SRN FL AND BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS NRN FL.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL GULF WITHIN ZONE OF
INCREASING FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE EWD...LIKELY REACHING FL BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
TO 40-50 KT OVER THE PENINSULA AS THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH
APPROACHES...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOWING
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. WILL MAINTAIN 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME DUE MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS

..DIAL.. 01/24/2011

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