SWODY3
SPC AC 150822
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2011
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD WITH A BROAD
SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND CORRESPONDING
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WRN THIRD. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TX SUNDAY WILL TURN EWD AS
IT ENTERS UPPER TROUGH BASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NERN GULF AND
GULF COASTAL AREA MONDAY...REACHING FL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE SRN FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
...SRN HALF OF FL PENINSULA...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH SRN FL MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EWD AND SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NWD INTO SRN FL
CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
WARM SECTOR OVER SRN FL WHERE DIABATIC WARMING CAN DESTABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND HODOGRAPHS WILL
ALSO BE ENHANCED WHERE THE LLJ INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT. THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR PRECLUDES INTRODUCING MORE THAN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..DIAL.. 01/15/2011
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