SWODY3
SPC AC 190756
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 AM CST WED JAN 19 2011
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHEAR EWD
AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE NRN GULF AND NRN FL ALONG
BASE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SWD THROUGH
THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY.
...CNTRL THROUGH SRN FL...
MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
BENEATH WEAK LAPSE RATES. AT LEAST SOME DIABATIC WARMING WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SRN FL WHICH MAY RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODEST INSTABILITY. THOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
HAVE VEERED TO WLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST OVER WARM SECTOR ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN 35-40 KT WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS SRN FL.
STRONGER AND DEEPER FORCING WILL SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE PENINSULA
WITH TIME...BUT EXPECTED WEAK CAP AND POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS DUE TO A WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS...BUT AT THIS TIME OVERALL
THREAT APPEARS LIMITED.
..DIAL.. 01/19/2011
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