DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230728
SWODY3
SPC AC 230727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND ERN GULF COAST STATES...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING
IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SPREADING
QUICKLY EWD INTO FL...AL AND GA BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WELL-DEFINED
COUPLET OF THE MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL JETS WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT
MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FIRST BEING MOISTURE RETURN. DRY AIR IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S F. ALTHOUGH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO REACH 60
F ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR FLORIDA. IN SPITE OF
THIS...THE MODELS KEEP INSTABILITY IN FLORIDA WEAK SUGGESTING THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THIS EVENT.

FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...THE MOIST AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. A MAJOR CONCERN
IS THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
USING THE SREF ENSEMBLE. THE NAM IS THE MORE FAVORABLE SOLUTION FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOWER AND LESS FAVORABLE. A
SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OFF THE COAST OF GA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
LESS FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT INLAND. AT THIS POINT...WILL
INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF COAST
STATES EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. PARTS OF THE REGION MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES
CONCERNING THE SCENARIO.

..BROYLES.. 01/23/2011

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