SWODY3
SPC AC 290830
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK MONDAY NIGHT...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CONUS ON MONDAY. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A LEAD PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH TO EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
MEXICO...AND REACH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY RETURN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS TX AS A WARM/MOIST SECTOR
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT/INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TX INTO OK AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE ARKLATEX.
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK TO MODERATE
ELEVATED BUOYANCY...WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...MAY YIELD
SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL. AS SUCH...WILL INTRODUCE A 5
PERCENT SEVERE RISK MAINLY FOR HAIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
..GUYER.. 01/29/2011
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