SWOD48
SPC AC 090941
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2011
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF A RETREATING COLD SURFACE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROBABLY BE MORE GRADUAL...LIMITING THE
MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS/OZARK
PLATEAU/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE MOST PROMINENT SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE LIKELY TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ACROSS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...UPPER SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
MAY BE LACKING AS WELL. THEREAFTER...THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS
CONCERNING THE UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION INCREASES CONSIDERABLY...AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BECOMES EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN.
..KERR.. 01/09/2011
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