SWOD48
SPC AC 130927
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CST THU JAN 13 2011
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A TENDENCY FOR THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH TO BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN CONCERNING THE DEGREE OF
INTERACTION AND PHASING OF SEVERAL DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER
FLOW...AND THE SPREAD REMAINS LARGE CONCERNING EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED A
RATHER BROAD RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL ZONE. THE
PROBABILITY OF STRONG CYCLOGENESIS MAY BE RELATIVELY LOW...BUT IF IT
OCCURS OVER INLAND AREAS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST SOME RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS. AND IT IS DOES NOT SEEM COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD MATERIALIZE.
..KERR.. 01/13/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment