SWOD48
SPC AC 150938
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2011
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THE 4-8 PERIOD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCE EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CONCERNING AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. MOREOVER...ENSEMBLE SPREADS BECOME
INCREASINGLY LARGE BEYOND DAY 5. ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS FROM THE FL PENINSULA INTO SRN GA THURSDAY (DAY6) AS A
NRN STREAM IMPULSE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SERN STATES INDUCING
CYCLOGENESIS AND MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 01/15/2011
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