SWOD48
SPC AC 160928
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CST SUN JAN 16 2011
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THOUGH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS EXIST...MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT ERN U.S. SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THIS PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO A
SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF MOISTURE INLAND. HOWEVER...SEVERAL IMPULSES
WILL ADVANCE SEWD AND MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH. ECMWF INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR MODIFIED GULF AIR TO RETURN
NWD INTO SRN PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND FL IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SUCH A FEATURE BY DAY 6 /FRIDAY JAN 21/. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH DISPERSIVE
MREF MEMBERS LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 01/16/2011
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