SWOD48
SPC AC 170948
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST MON JAN 17 2011
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
CONSENSUS IS THAT SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE ERN
U.S. MOST OF THE 4-8 PERIOD. PATTERN WILL GENERALLY NOT BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN INLAND. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED ON SOLUTION THAT A NRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL AMPLIFY SEWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY DAY 4. CONCURRENTLY WSWLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF COASTAL AREA DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE
SRN STREAM TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME LOOSELY PHASED WITH NRN STREAM.
SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS
ALONG GULF COAST LATE THURSDAY AND SHIFTING EWD INTO FL FRIDAY. A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS COULD EVOLVE ALONG THE
GULF COAST THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MORE LIKELY OVER THE FL PENINSULA
FRIDAY. LIMITED DURATION OF THE RETURN FLOW AND EXPECTED WEAK LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MARGINAL. FOR THIS REASON...A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL NOT BE
INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.
BEYOND DAY 5...REINFORCING SURGE OF CP AIR IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
INTO THE GULF...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
..DIAL.. 01/17/2011
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