SWOD48
SPC AC 210952
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2011
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL STATES.
THE MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM SEWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY
MORNING/DAY 5. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS KEEP MOISTURE RETURN MEAGER AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE ERN GULF COAST STATES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD TUESDAY
NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW CONCERNING THE QUALITY OF THE WARM
SECTOR OVER LAND. IF THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
REASONABLY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF
AL...GA...FL AND SC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND DAY 5...THE
MODELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES. THIS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS KEEP THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOW FROM WEDNESDAY/DAY 6 TO FRIDAY/DAY 8.
..BROYLES.. 01/21/2011
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