SWOD48
SPC AC 220953
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST SAT JAN 22 2011
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF THE CONUS. THE MODELS MOVE THIS
FEATURE EWD TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
SERN U.S. AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FL AND
GA ON TUESDAY/DAY 4. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG BUT ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE QUALITY OF THE
WARM SECTOR. WILL NOT OUTLOOK A SEVERE THREAT AREA DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND MOISTURE RETURN.
THE MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY/DAY
5 AND THEN KEEP NLY TO NWLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY/DAY 7. THIS PATTERN WOULD KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS LATE IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD SUGGESTING
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS.
..BROYLES.. 01/22/2011
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