SWOD48
SPC AC 240956
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011
VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ERN U.S. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES. THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY/DAY 5 AND KEEP NW FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
RETURN MOISTURE NWD ONTO THE TX COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY/DAY 6 AND
SUNDAY/DAY 7 AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EWD OUT OF THE NRN
MEXICO. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ON THE TX COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THIS SOLUTION ESPECIALLY CONCERNING ANY
SEVERE THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 01/24/2011
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