SWOD48
SPC AC 270811
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CST THU JAN 27 2011
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD BY MOVING AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EWD FROM SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON
SUNDAY/DAY 4. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES. ON MONDAY/DAY 5...THE MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SWRN STATES AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM INTO THE SRN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY/DAY 6. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM EAST TX TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT IF ENOUGH MOISTURE CAN RETURN NWD. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE WHICH INTRODUCES
UNCERTAINTY. ALSO...THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. ATTM...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A
SEVERE THREAT AREA ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY/DAY
7 AND THURSDAY DAY 8...IF THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SERN U.S. AS
FORECAST.
..BROYLES.. 01/27/2011
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