SWOD48
SPC AC 291000
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z-BASED ECMWF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLES AND GEFS/UKMET GUIDANCE ARE
IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF A LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN-CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE DETAILS OF SMALLER SCALE/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURES ARE A BIT
UNCERTAIN...THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER FORCING/ANTICIPATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS...COMBINED WITH THE QUICK RETURN OF A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS TOWARD THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
INCREASING DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY/DAY 4.
ESPECIALLY IF A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
WOULD UNFOLD...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THIS JUNCTURE EXISTS
FOR A SLIGHT RISK CALIBER SCENARIO TO UNFOLD ON TUESDAY/DAY 4 WITHIN
A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM EAST TX/ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY /AND
PERHAPS EVEN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY/. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY PRECLUDES CONFIDENCE IN /AND SPATIAL
DELINEATION OF/ A 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREA AT THIS
TIME.
THEREAFTER...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL INTO WEDNESDAY/DAY 5 ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY LOW THROUGH DAYS 6-8 AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD/STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILS IN ITS WAKE.
..GUYER.. 01/29/2011
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