SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050816
LAZ000-TXZ000-050945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CST WED JAN 05 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX INVOF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY EWD ACROSS
SWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 050816Z - 050945Z
VERY LOW-END/LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IS EVOLVING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO COULD OCCUR IN
COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE
UPPER TX COAST AND EWD INTO S CENTRAL LA...AS SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF
THE GULF HAS PUSHED A WARM FRONT INTO COASTAL REGIONS INVOF THE
MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER. THE SLY WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS KS/OK INTO MO
ATTM...WITH THE OVERALL QG FORCING SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING
WEAK/ELEVATED CAPE.
WHILE STORMS ONSHORE SHOULD REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE A MORE STABLE
SURFACE LAYER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY. GIVEN THIS...AND THE MORE SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER CLOSE TO THE COAST...AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST PENETRATING TO
THE SURFACE -- OR EVEN A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO -- WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..GOSS.. 01/05/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
LAT...LON 29549428 29769444 30029410 30239355 30289319 29969220
29469178 29249219 29339314 29549428
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