MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0010

ACUS11 KWNS 090728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090728
TXZ000-090930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 090728Z - 090930Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THEY MAKE
THEIR WAY ACROSS DEEP S TX. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE MAY BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A
WATCH.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF LRD TO
CRP. TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN
THE 50S F WHICH IS STABLE FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. TO THE
FRONT...DEWPOINTS RISE TO THE MID 60S F...WHICH RESULTS IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG USING MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AS IT CONTINUES EWD. A DEEPENING LOW SHOULD TRAVEL EWD ALONG THE
WARM FRONT...WHERE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. AREAS OF
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WERE NOTED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS...INDICATIVE OF LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS THE PRIMARY LINE
OF STORMS ENCOUNTERS THIS ZONE OF LIFT...IT WILL ALSO BE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY FEEDING FROM THE
SOUTH...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING. SURFACE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WILL
BE GREATEST RIGHT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY S OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE
THE SURFACE AIR MASS IS LESS DENSE AND MORE UNSTABLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
PROFILES...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EVEN N OF
THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND MAY
BE SHALLOW. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING AS THE STORMS APPROACH THE CRP AREA.

..JEWELL.. 01/09/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON 28589886 28809729 28739652 28419620 28059653 27599702
27289719 27129725 27019788 26919873 26929941 27229954
27629925 28109907 28589886

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